SUNYAC Power Rankings: Week 2

SUNYAC Power Rankings by Josh Carey
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We all know records don’t tell the whole story, but the SUNYAC Power Rankings do. Teams are rated based on past performance and future expectations. The ratings are constructed such that any two teams playing at a neutral site, with a neutral crowd, equidistant from the two campuses, would have the higher seeded team beat the lower seeded team.

Waffle Watch: My colleague Chris Morens, color commentator for WGSU 89.3 FM in Geneseo is looking for a delicious breakfast treat in the SUNYAC. It is his opinion that not enough rinks have waffles available, and that this is a food that should be a part of hockey. So I’m going to help Chris out. If you find waffles at a SUNYAC rink, e-mail me using the link above and tell me. If we can verify that waffles are being sold, I’ll bump that team up a spot in the rankings. Have waffles when Chris (and Geneseo) travel to the rink, and I’ll bump them up an additional spot. Which SUNYAC Rink will be the first to succeed on the Waffle Watch?

Rank (Last week rank) Team (Record;Conference Record). Last week (Score)
Analysis
This week.

1 (1). Oswego (4-0). Last week: W @ Elmira (2-1), W vs. Elmira (5-2).

Oswego swept a home and home with an Elmira team that many expected great things from coming off of a Final Four appearance in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Like last year, it might take the Soaring Eagles some time to get into their groove (Elmira was at .500 before traveling to Geneseo last season and starting their impressive run). That’s not to take away from the Lakers’ effort in this series. Oswego started out sluggishly on Friday, getting only three shots on goal in the first period. The fact they ended up outshooting Elmira 34-30 in the contest shows how they controlled the flow of the game there on out. Saturday’s game seemed to have a crackdown on officiating, but the Lakers still found a way to get it done. If Elmira improves over the course of the season, as they did last year, these wins could look huge for the Lakers. Bear in mind that Brockport and Geneseo have already played games this season, which is something new for Oswego.

This week: @ Brockport (conf), @ Geneseo (conf).

2 (2). Plattsburgh (2-0, 1-0). Last week: W @ Potsdam (7-1), L vs. US Under-18 (5-3, ex).

Is Plattsburgh this good, or is Potsdam this bad? If it weren’t for the win over the Bears being coupled with the strong showing in their Sunday exhibition, I might think the Cardinals benefited from a weak opponent. However, Plattsburgh outshot the Bears 27-17, was 2/8 on the power play, while holding Potsdam to 0/6, and had 13 different players score points. That’s about as close to domination as you could expect. SUNYAC teams have also historically had a difficult time with the Under-18 team, 5-3 is a respectable score. Like many other teams, this weekend will show us what the Cardinals really have.

This week: @ Fredonia (conf), @ Buffalo St (conf).

3 (3). Geneseo (2-1). Last week: L vs. Neumann (6-2), W vs. Neumann (5-3).

Friday night, no one would have mistaken the Ice Knights for a team that could skate with Plattsburgh or Oswego. Granted, they turned it around somewhat after falling down 3-0 at the end of the first, but a late goal in the second on the 5x3 ended any chance of a comeback. Saturday Geneseo came out nearly as sluggishly, and once again was struggling to compete. It was a stretch in the third where Geneseo was able to get two 5x3s and score on both that turned their night, and perhaps, season around. I’m not sure Coach Schultz realized the importance this game could have on Geneseo’s potential positioning in the national tournament (think back to that Elmira game from last season), by starting freshman goaltender Greg Richardson for the first game of the series. Expect Jokic in net for league play, and the Ice Knights to be a force to be reckoned with.

This week: vs. Cortland (conf), vs. Oswego (conf).

4 (6) Fredonia (2-1-1). Last week: W vs. Marion (8-2), T vs. St. Norbert (2-2).

Maybe opposing teams should stop bringing their own water to Steele Hall, because there is something there that makes a pedestrian Blue Devils team suddenly able to compete with the #2 team in the nation. And it’s not just St. Norbert, the last time the Blue Devils lost at home was October 22, 2004. The reason Fredonia isn’t higher (and even this ranking might be a stretch) is how the game played out. Fredonia had two power play goals in the first, but let St. Norbert get back into it with two shorthanded goals in the second. Watch out for Matt McKeown, who leads all SUNYAC freshmen with 8 points thus far.

This week: vs. Plattsburgh (conf), vs. Potsdam (conf).

5 (4) Cortland (3-0). Last week: W @ Lebanon Valley (5-3).

Sorry, Cortland. But you can’t expect to only beat the Flying Dutchmen 5-3 and get a lot of respect from the Power Rankings. My first note about this game is that the venue, the Giant Center, is home to the Hershey Bears, last year’s AHL Calder Cup winners. I highly recommend going to their website and viewing the Interactive Seating Chart to get an idea of the scale of the place. Now, imagine an attendance of 156. Cortland was able to get off 36 shots, but once again their defense was nonexistent and gave up 36 shots as well. A 3/11 Power play (27.3%) is healthy, but they also gave up both power play and shorthanded goals. All three of the Flying Dutchmen’s goals came in the third period, on 14 shots (a .785 save percentage in the period). This raises some important questions about the freshman goaltender, Binga. Will he be able to handle the barrage of shots the defense is forcing him to defend, will he able to play an entire weekend of SUNYAC hockey, and, more importantly, how will he fare under the strain of fourteen league games? He has a chance to make this team a playoff contender, but only if he’s able to last the entire season.

This week: @ Geneseo (conf), @ Brockport (conf).

6 (7) Buffalo St (1-3). Last week: L vs. St. Norbert (8-1), W vs. Marion (6-2).

Last weekend was a perfect example of what the Bengals need to do to keep pace for a playoff spot this season: Beat the teams you’re suppose to beat (Marion), so that you can still be in contention after the strong teams (St. Norbert) come to town. Six league wins was good enough for the playoffs last year, but if the bottom teams are more competitive that number could be even lower. That makes this weekend’s showdown against Potsdam even more important for two teams that seem to be struggling. A point of worry for Buffalo State, however, is that senior goaltender Sean Sheehan has the lowest save percentage of qualifying SUNYAC goaltenders at .853, and also has a 5.01 GAA. He will have to improve between the pipes for the Bengals to make teams worry.

This week: vs. Potsdam (conf), vs. Plattsburgh (conf)

7 (5) Brockport (1-3). Last week: L @ Manhattanville (4-0), L @ Manhattanville (10-0).

The Golden Eagles are lucky for the poor performance of the teams below them, because otherwise a weekend set where you are outscored 14-0 would send you straight to the bottom of the rankings. Brockport played 120 minutes of hockey, put 43 shots on net, and wasn’t able to get a single shot past Andrew Gallant. It looks like, down 5-0 in the second game, having gotten no pressure on the Valiants, Brockport gave up. In the last 14 minutes of the weekend, the Golden Eagles gave up 5 goals, 4 of them at even strength. Brockport will need to put up a better fight and be willing to close out games if they want to have success in the SUNYAC this season.

This week: vs. Oswego (conf), vs. Cortland (conf).

8 (9) Morrisville (1-4). Last week: L @ Becker (2-1), W @ Becker (3-2).

I don’t want to justify this ranking in this space (scroll down a little instead), but I want to give Morrisville credit for its first D-III win, even if it is against Becker. They were finally able to hold an opponent under 50 shots, and I honestly believe the Mustangs would beat the Bears right now. Circle 11/17 on your calendars for that matchup.

This week: Idle

9 (8) Potsdam (0-3, 0-1). Last week: L vs. Plattsburgh 7-1.

I already touched on how the Bears weren’t able to put up a fight against the Cardinals last weekend, and this is a team that looks to be in disarray. Ryan McCarthey did not play [injury], which is telling considering this was the first conference game of the season. In addition, there’s a goaltending controversy up north, as Vince Cuccaro only lasted 7 minutes and 33 seconds, giving up 3 goals on 6 shots. Rob Barnhart came in and performed only slightly better, giving up four goals on 21 total shots the rest of the way. This is a team the currently has no offensive threats, shaky defense, and sieve-like goaltending. The numbers of wins they’ve gained is representative of this. Of SUNYAC teams, Potsdam is 7^th in points for, and 8^th in points against. They are last in Net Special Teams. This is a team in disarray which needs a win against Buffalo State to get into league play strong. Otherwise, it could be a while before the Bears are able to grab a win in the standings.

This week: @ Buffalo St, @ Fredonia.